As we look ahead to 2026, the question for most firms is no longer whether disruption will occur. It is whether leadership teams are being exercised for how disruption now unfolds in practice.
Disruption has become prolonged, layered and confidence-eroding rather than short, sharp and contained - simulations need to reflect that reality.
The five priorities below represent where simulation and exercising effort should be concentrated in 2026. They are ordered deliberately. Together, they test leadership judgement, endurance and coherence under sustained uncertainty.
1. Systemic cyber disruption through identity and privileged access
Why this matters
The fastest route to enterprise-wide disruption is no longer a perimeter breach. It is identity compromise. Service desks, privileged accounts, access tokens and trusted pathways are increasingly exploited because they allow attackers to move without triggering obvious alarms.
This often leads to material impact before there is certainty that anything is wrong.
How this could show up in a simulation
A legitimate account is compromised through social engineering or credential abuse. Access appears normal. Fraud or unauthorised actions begin while security teams are still assessing. Decisions about access shutdown risk disrupting core services.
What this tests
What to look out for
2. Prolonged third-party or shared platform outage
Why this matters
Supplier and platform concentration means that outages rarely stop services cleanly. They degrade reliability, confidence and customer experience over time. Restoration timelines slip and uncertainty persists.
These situations become conditions rather than events.
How this could show up in a simulation
A critical supplier suffers partial or intermittent failure. Communications are inconsistent. Internal teams debate whether this is serious enough to escalate. Customers experience increasing friction across multiple services.
What this tests
What to look out for
3. AI-enabled deception and misinformation
Why this matters
Deception now operates at speed and scale. Deepfake voice or message impersonation, combined with external rumours or misinformation, can undermine trust before facts are established.
This is not just reputational. It is operational, financial and governance-related.
How this could show up in a simulation
An urgent instruction appears to come from a senior executive. At the same time, external claims of a breach circulate, driving customer and media pressure. Internal channels fill with conflicting information.
What this tests
What to look out for
4. Polycrisis conditions that stretch leadership over time
Why this matters
The most damaging situations are no longer single incidents. They are overlapping pressures that exhaust leadership capacity. None may be existential alone. Together, they degrade decision quality and coherence.
How this could show up in a simulation
A third-party issue is underway. A cyber signal emerges. Regulatory queries begin. Staff absence increases. Social pressure grows. Recovery is partial and slow.
What this tests
What to look out for
5. Regulatory engagement under sustained uncertainty
Why this matters
Regulatory scrutiny increasingly runs alongside incidents rather than after them. Firms are judged on how decisions are made, harm is managed and actions are evidenced while uncertainty persists.
This is a leadership test, not a compliance one.
How this could show up in a simulation
Impact tolerances are at risk. Information is incomplete. Regulators request updates, evidence and rationale for decisions while recovery remains uncertain.
What this tests
What to look out for
What this means for your simulation programme
Effective simulations in 2026 should not aim to cover everything. They should go deep on scenarios that reflect how disruption actually unfolds.
If a simulation doesn't force leadership teams to operate under ambiguity, sustain judgment over time, and make uncomfortable trade-offs while regulators demand answers - it won't expose your real vulnerabilities. Let's build one that does. Speak to our specialists today!